Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of DaJuan Summers of the Georgetown Hoyas using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  After three years in school, Summers will be entering the draft and may be selected in the first round.

Summers certainly looks like an NBA small forward.  He’s tall, strong, and athletic.  Like many of the guys I’ve previewed in this draft, he compliments his athleticism with a good shot from long range.  The problem with Summers is that some feel all he does offensively is take perimeter shots.  For a guy of his size, you would expect more forays near the basket.  Additionally, his overall production at Georgetown was low.  It remains to be seen whether or not that was just because of the amount of talent he had to share the ball with.

How does BSPS think Summers will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected career averages per 36 minutes:

A player with those numbers would probably not have a major role on a team unless he was very good on defense.  With Summers’ lack of great lateral quickness, that may not be the case. 

Let’s break the box score down.  First of all, Summers will not produce a lot of points, rebounds, assists, or blocks for his position.  Secondly, his field goal percentage will be below average.  This will be mitigated slightly because of the amount of threes he takes.  Unfortunately, his three-point percentage won’t be high enough to make him a truly efficient player.

As of now, Summers doesn’t look like a good prospect.  He’ll look like a great small forward but probably won’t play like one.  To change that doomsday scenario, he’ll either need to develop a stronger defensive mentality or increase his three-point accuracy.  His best scenario would be a James Posey role somewhere.  However, he’s got a long way to go to get there. 

Copyright © 2009 Basketball-Statistics.com