Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of Darren Collison of the UCLA Bruins using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  Collison will likely be selected late in the first round or early in the second. 

After four years in a prominent Division I school, Collison is pretty much a well-known commodity by now.  He possesses great speed and an improving shot from long range.  Perhaps most impressively, he is a tenacious defender.  On the other hand, he’s quite short and his ball-handling isn’t exceptional for a point guard. 

How does BSPS think Collison will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected career averages per 36 minutes:

The box score indicates Collison won’t be the next Chris Paul, that’s for sure.  Not only will his scoring be mediocre at best, but he also won’t dish out a ton of assists.  He’ll be able to rack up a few steals and shoot a great percentage from the three-point line, though. 

Those last two points indicate why I think he could be a steal for a team looking for a point guard late in the draft.  In a draft class this weak, ending up with a serviceable player might be all you can ask for.  In addition, with the rising popularity of speedy but short point guards, Collison may be part of the next wave.

What will make Collison serviceable?  For one, he could be a deadeye three-point shooter.  It’s always great to spread the floor and guys like him allow you to do just that.  Secondly, the box score above barely explains Collison’s defensive abilities.  I think defense is always underrated. 

To me, Collison could be a Lindsey Hunter-type player.  That may not sound very exciting, but it could be a sweet deal for a team like the Blazers or Lakers. 

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