Today I will be projecting the NBA stats of Sam Young of the Pittsburgh Panthers using my Box Score Prediction System (explanation here: http://basketball-statistics.com/explanationoftheboxscorepredictionsystem.html).  Young is a likely first round pick.

As one of the leaders on a very strong team, Young was spectacular in his senior year.  He had a good showing in the NCAA tournament as well.  Young is strong and athletic with well-rounded scoring abilities.  His midrange shot is good and his three-point shot is improving.  Young is also a solid rebounder and an ok defender. 

The biggest concern with Young is experience, although not in the way you’d expect.  Young is, ironically, old.  He turned 24 towards the end of his senior year.  That means he was considerably older than most of his competition and puts his college performance into question.  Although I think he will improve and grow just like any other rookie once he hits the NBA, I think you have to take his college success with a grain of salt. 

How does BSPS think Young will do in the NBA?  Let’s take a look at his projected career averages per 36 minutes:

BSPS takes experience into account (in a negative way), and that undoubtedly hurt Young’s projection.  Young will be just a mediocre scorer in terms of volume and not too efficient either.  His rebounding will be pretty good for a small forward, though.  Unfortunately, Young hasn’t shown the ability to create offense for others in the form of assists and BSPS doesn’t think that will change once he hits the NBA.

Young has some pluses, including things I didn’t mention (such as his toughness).  However, his ceiling does not appear to be high and he’s already had the advantage of being older than his competition.  The late first round seems like an appropriate spot for him. 

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